Market News

Cellular Market Data: Russia and Ukraine

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09 December 2005

Starting from this issue we initiate the release of cellular indicators for Ukranian market, please see information below and the extra worksheet added to the MS excel file.

Russia

Number of subscribers (valid SIM cards) reached 120 mln, up 4 mln from October 2005, 45 mln from December 2004 and 54 mln from November 2004. Other key points are:

  • Penetration in Russia grew to 83% (up 3% from October 2005, 31% from December 2004, 37% from November 2004);
  • There were 131 and 115 SIM cards in use per 100 population in Moscow and St.Petersburg respectively as of November 30, 2005;
  • In November 2005 Vimpelcom won back the leadership from MTS in net additions in Moscow, St.Petersburg and total Russia.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers November 30, 2005 October 31, 2005
Total Russia 119,730,000 115,760,000
  Penetration* 82.5% 79.7%
Moscow 22,302,410 22,026,696
  Penetration* 131.3% 129.7%
St.Petersburg 7,273,784 7,171,757
  Penetration 114.7% 113.1%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 90,153,806 86,561,547
  Penetration 74.0% 71.0%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Ukraine

Total number of subscribers reached 26,360,539 which translates into cellular penetration of 55.4%. Kyivstar showed good results in November outnumbering its main rival, UMC.

Please note that Astelit has more liberal churn policy (12 months) compared to other operators and still did not churn subcribers since its network launch. You may find more information in the file below.

October 2005 Cellular Market Data

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09 November 2005

Number of subscribers (valid SIM cards) reached 115.8 mln as of October 31, 2005, up 4.0 mln compared to the previous month. The growth is 41.4 mln subscribers since December 2004 and 53.5 mln since October 2004.

Penetration in Russia almost reached 80% (up 3% from August 2005, 29% from December 2004, 37% from October 2004). There were 130 and 113 SIM cards in use per 100 of population in Moscow and St.Petersburg respectively as of October 31, 2005. In October 2005 MTS outperformed its rivals in terms of net additions in Moscow and regions, while Vimpelcom did better than competition in St.Petersburg.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers October 31, 2005 September 30, 2005
Total Russia 115,760,000 111,740,000
  Penetration* 79.7% 77.0%
Moscow 22,026,696 21,625,285
  Penetration* 129.7% 127.3%
St.Petersburg 7,171,757 7,077,535
  Penetration 113.1% 111.6%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 86,561,547 83,037,180
  Penetration 71.0% 68.1%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Mobile Subscribers Growth

Below you may download AC&M monthly updates for May-October 2005 in MS Excel format.

May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005

Please note that the number of subscribers mentioned in our reports effectively means number of valid SIM cards as reported by mobile operators according to their churn policy.
Penetration figures are calculated based on official 2002 Russian census data.
All files are compressed (ZIP).

Visit our DOWNLOAD AREA.

Russian Cellular Market in April 2005

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16 May 2005

The number of Russian cellular customers grew 4% in April to reach 89.3 mln (3.7 mln net adds, slightly less than in March when 3.9 new subscribers were added). SIM-card penetration was at 62% as of April 30, 2005, compared to 31% in April 2004 and 51% at the end of 2004.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers April 30, 2005 March 31, 2005
Total Russia 89,275,000 85,560,000
  Penetration* 61.5% 58.9%
Moscow 19,139,425 18,608,083
  Penetration* 112.7% 109.6%
St.Petersburg 6,220,025 6,053,309
  Penetration 98.1% 95.5%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 63,915,550 60,898,608
  Penetration 52.5% 50.0%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, April 2005
Russian Net Additions,
April 2005

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company April 30, 2005 March 31, 2005
1 MTS 42,084,667 40,085,000
Moscow
 8,393,216 8,114,377
Ukraine (UMC)
 8,325,515 8,079,556
Belarus
 1,455,919 1,396,380
Uzbekistan
 369,625 351,974
2 Vimpelcom 31,809,000 30,750,000
Moscow
 8,267,500 8,120,000
Kazakhstan
 1,195,000 1,131,000
3 MegaFon 16,269,861 15,684,945
Moscow
 2,348,716 2,255,879
Tajikistan
 51,329 50,138
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,480,000 2,400,000
5 SMARTS Group 2,150,000 2,101,000
6 Tele2 1,590,000 1,490,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,267,622 1,198,255
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 826,556 798,036
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 537,665 509,384
10 New Telephone Company 345,670 326,770

Both Vimpelcom and MegaFon showed somewhat modest results in April compared to MTS, which was the unquestionable leader in net additions in Moscow, St.Petersburg and the regions.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Moscow Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005
Net Additions in Moscow,
April 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
April 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005
Regional Net Additions
April 2005

Russian Cellular Market in March 2005

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20 April 2005

The number of Russian cellular customers grew 5% in March to reach 85.6 mln.

There were 59 SIM cards issued per 100 of population as of 31 March 2005 (compared to 29 in March 2004 and 51 at the end of 2004).

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers March 31, 2005 February 28, 2005
Total Russia 85,560,000 81,700,000
  Penetration* 58.9% 56.3%
Moscow 18,608,083 18,129,914
  Penetration* 109.6% 106.7%
St.Petersburg 6,053,309 5,911,085
  Penetration 95.5% 93.2%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 60,898,608 57,659,001
  Penetration 50.0% 47.3%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, March 2005
Russian Net Additions,
March 2005

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company March 31, 2005 February 28, 2005
1 MTS 40,085,000 38,480,000
Moscow
 8,110,000 7,955,000
Ukraine (UMC)
 8,080,000 7,895,000
Belarus
 1,400,000 1,328,000
Uzbekistan
 352,000 337,000
2 Vimpelcom 30,750,000 29,450,000
Moscow
 8,120,000 7,945,000
Kazakhstan
 1,131,000 1,055,000
3 MegaFon 15,684,945 14,867,250
Moscow
 2,255,879 2,127,996
Tajikistan
 50,138 49,212
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,400,000 2,283,100
5 SMARTS Group 2,101,000 2,010,000
6 Tele2 1,490,000 1,410,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,198,255 1,116,000
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 798,036 775,322
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 509,384 486,520
10 New Telephone Company 326,770 311,570

Almost 0.5 mln net additions were signed in Moscow. Penetration in the city reached 110% (73% in March 2004). According to our estimates the real penetration in the capital (if one takes adjusted population figure of ~25 mln vs. 17 mln official and discount for inactive users) is around 60-65% at the end of March. Big 3 players were almost on par in terms of new customer additions. However, Vimpelcom did slightly better than others and returned the leadership in the capital (though 5-10k difference so far do not look very convincing).

MegaFon outperformed MTS and Vimpelcom on its home market of St.Petersburg where it had been losing to competition since Oct-04, while MTS attracted the largest number of customers outside Moscow and St.Petersburg license areas.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Moscow Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005
Net Additions in Moscow,
March 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
March 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005
Regional Net Additions
March 2005

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Facts and Figures

There were 187.8 mln cellular subscribers registered in Russian cellular networks as of year-end 2008.