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09
Dec

Cellular Market Data: Russia and Ukraine

Starting from this issue we initiate the release of cellular indicators for Ukranian market, please see information below and the extra worksheet added to the MS excel file.

Russia

Number of subscribers (valid SIM cards) reached 120 mln, up 4 mln from October 2005, 45 mln from December 2004 and 54 mln from November 2004. Other key points are:

  • Penetration in Russia grew to 83% (up 3% from October 2005, 31% from December 2004, 37% from November 2004);
  • There were 131 and 115 SIM cards in use per 100 population in Moscow and St.Petersburg respectively as of November 30, 2005;
  • In November 2005 Vimpelcom won back the leadership from MTS in net additions in Moscow, St.Petersburg and total Russia.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers November 30, 2005 October 31, 2005
Total Russia 119,730,000 115,760,000
  Penetration* 82.5% 79.7%
Moscow 22,302,410 22,026,696
  Penetration* 131.3% 129.7%
St.Petersburg 7,273,784 7,171,757
  Penetration 114.7% 113.1%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 90,153,806 86,561,547
  Penetration 74.0% 71.0%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Ukraine

Total number of subscribers reached 26,360,539 which translates into cellular penetration of 55.4%. Kyivstar showed good results in November outnumbering its main rival, UMC.

Please note that Astelit has more liberal churn policy (12 months) compared to other operators and still did not churn subcribers since its network launch. You may find more information in the file below.

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09
Nov

October 2005 Cellular Market Data

Number of subscribers (valid SIM cards) reached 115.8 mln as of October 31, 2005, up 4.0 mln compared to the previous month. The growth is 41.4 mln subscribers since December 2004 and 53.5 mln since October 2004.

Penetration in Russia almost reached 80% (up 3% from August 2005, 29% from December 2004, 37% from October 2004). There were 130 and 113 SIM cards in use per 100 of population in Moscow and St.Petersburg respectively as of October 31, 2005. In October 2005 MTS outperformed its rivals in terms of net additions in Moscow and regions, while Vimpelcom did better than competition in St.Petersburg.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers October 31, 2005 September 30, 2005
Total Russia 115,760,000 111,740,000
  Penetration* 79.7% 77.0%
Moscow 22,026,696 21,625,285
  Penetration* 129.7% 127.3%
St.Petersburg 7,171,757 7,077,535
  Penetration 113.1% 111.6%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 86,561,547 83,037,180
  Penetration 71.0% 68.1%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Mobile Subscribers Growth

Below you may download AC&M monthly updates for May-October 2005 in MS Excel format.

May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005

Please note that the number of subscribers mentioned in our reports effectively means number of valid SIM cards as reported by mobile operators according to their churn policy.
Penetration figures are calculated based on official 2002 Russian census data.
All files are compressed (ZIP).

Visit our DOWNLOAD AREA.

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16
May

Russian Cellular Market in April 2005

The number of Russian cellular customers grew 4% in April to reach 89.3 mln (3.7 mln net adds, slightly less than in March when 3.9 new subscribers were added). SIM-card penetration was at 62% as of April 30, 2005, compared to 31% in April 2004 and 51% at the end of 2004.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers April 30, 2005 March 31, 2005
Total Russia 89,275,000 85,560,000
  Penetration* 61.5% 58.9%
Moscow 19,139,425 18,608,083
  Penetration* 112.7% 109.6%
St.Petersburg 6,220,025 6,053,309
  Penetration 98.1% 95.5%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 63,915,550 60,898,608
  Penetration 52.5% 50.0%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, April 2005
Russian Net Additions,
April 2005

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company April 30, 2005 March 31, 2005
1 MTS 42,084,667 40,085,000
Moscow
8,393,216 8,114,377
Ukraine (UMC)
8,325,515 8,079,556
Belarus
1,455,919 1,396,380
Uzbekistan
369,625 351,974
2 Vimpelcom 31,809,000 30,750,000
Moscow
8,267,500 8,120,000
Kazakhstan
1,195,000 1,131,000
3 MegaFon 16,269,861 15,684,945
Moscow
2,348,716 2,255,879
Tajikistan
51,329 50,138
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,480,000 2,400,000
5 SMARTS Group 2,150,000 2,101,000
6 Tele2 1,590,000 1,490,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,267,622 1,198,255
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 826,556 798,036
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 537,665 509,384
10 New Telephone Company 345,670 326,770

Both Vimpelcom and MegaFon showed somewhat modest results in April compared to MTS, which was the unquestionable leader in net additions in Moscow, St.Petersburg and the regions.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Moscow Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005

Net Additions in Moscow,
April 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
April 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional Market Breakdown
April 30, 2005
Regional Net Additions
April 2005
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20
Apr

Russian Cellular Market in March 2005

The number of Russian cellular customers grew 5% in March to reach 85.6 mln.

There were 59 SIM cards issued per 100 of population as of 31 March 2005 (compared to 29 in March 2004 and 51 at the end of 2004).

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers March 31, 2005 February 28, 2005
Total Russia 85,560,000 81,700,000
  Penetration* 58.9% 56.3%
Moscow 18,608,083 18,129,914
  Penetration* 109.6% 106.7%
St.Petersburg 6,053,309 5,911,085
  Penetration 95.5% 93.2%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 60,898,608 57,659,001
  Penetration 50.0% 47.3%

* Please note that penetration figures are calculated based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, March 2005
Russian Net Additions,
March 2005

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company March 31, 2005 February 28, 2005
1 MTS 40,085,000 38,480,000
Moscow
8,110,000 7,955,000
Ukraine (UMC)
8,080,000 7,895,000
Belarus
1,400,000 1,328,000
Uzbekistan
352,000 337,000
2 Vimpelcom 30,750,000 29,450,000
Moscow
8,120,000 7,945,000
Kazakhstan
1,131,000 1,055,000
3 MegaFon 15,684,945 14,867,250
Moscow
2,255,879 2,127,996
Tajikistan
50,138 49,212
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,400,000 2,283,100
5 SMARTS Group 2,101,000 2,010,000
6 Tele2 1,490,000 1,410,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,198,255 1,116,000
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 798,036 775,322
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 509,384 486,520
10 New Telephone Company 326,770 311,570

Almost 0.5 mln net additions were signed in Moscow. Penetration in the city reached 110% (73% in March 2004). According to our estimates the real penetration in the capital (if one takes adjusted population figure of ~25 mln vs. 17 mln official and discount for inactive users) is around 60-65% at the end of March. Big 3 players were almost on par in terms of new customer additions. However, Vimpelcom did slightly better than others and returned the leadership in the capital (though 5-10k difference so far do not look very convincing).

MegaFon outperformed MTS and Vimpelcom on its home market of St.Petersburg where it had been losing to competition since Oct-04, while MTS attracted the largest number of customers outside Moscow and St.Petersburg license areas.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Moscow Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005

Net Additions in Moscow,
March 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
March 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional Market Breakdown
March 31, 2005
Regional Net Additions
March 2005
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15
Mar

February 2005 Cellular Statistics

We estimate that the total number of valid subscriptions in Russia passed 80 mln in February to have reached 81.7m. Therefore, SIM-card penetration in the country reached 56% (27.5% in February 2004).

If Russia sustain the current growth pattern we may very well see 119 million subscribers in Russia at the year-end 2005 (>80% penetration).

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers February 28, 2005 January 31, 2005
Total Russia 81,700,000 78,260,000
  Penetration 56.3% 53.9%
Moscow 18,129,914 17,617,682
  Penetration 106.7% 103.7%
St.Petersburg 5,911,085 5,797,703
  Penetration 93.2% 91.4%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 57,659,001 54,844,615
  Penetration 47.3% 45.0%

Please note that our penetration figures are based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, February 2005
Russian Net Additions,
February 2005
Top 10 Mobile Operators
# Company February 28, 2005 January 31, 2005
1 MTS 38,480,000 37,220,000
Moscow
7,955,000 7,800,000
Ukraine (UMC)
7,895,000 7,730,000
Belarus
1,328,000 1,270,000
Uzbekistan
337,000 320,000
2 Vimpelcom 29,450,000 28,245,000
Moscow
7,945,000 7,775,000
Kazakhstan
1,055,000 995,000
3 MegaFon 14,867,250 14,153,090
Moscow
2,127,996 1,941,776
Tajikistan
49,212 48,624
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,283,100 2,167,800
5 SMARTS Group 2,010,000 1,905,100
6 Tele2 1,410,000 1,340,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,116,000 1,029,742
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 775,322 725,000
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 486,520 440,000
10 New Telephone Company 311,570 280,810

Starting from this issue we include our estimates for Tele2 customers in Russia. With a very limited operational data available on Tele2 Russian operations we consider it is still important to share our vision with you as, according to our estimates, the company may soon reach 1.5 million subscribers (combined of all its 12 regional networks) and thus should be considered as a serious second-tier regional operator.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Both MTS and Vimpelcom signed 150+ thsd new customers in February, which is typically not the best selling month. MTS leadership in the capital remained unchanged in February, though the difference with Vimpelcom is statistically insignificant. We would like to draw your attention to the performance by MegaFon, which for the first time since Sonic Duo (MegaFon operating entity in the Moscow License Area) came on air in November 2001, achieved more net additions in the capital than its two major competitors! Despite the fact that MegaFon uses stricter churn policy it has been slowly but surely expanding its market share in the MLA.

Moscow Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005

Net Additions in Moscow,
February 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St.Petersburg is quickly approaching 100 mobile accounts per 100 population. Vimpelcom signed more than 50,000 users in St.Petersburg in February - for the second month in a row winning leadership in net additions from MegaFon and MTS.

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
February 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional sales are leaded by Vimpelcom this month (again), with MTS running closely.

Regional Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005
Regional Net Additions
February 2005
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15
Feb

Moscow Cellular Penetration is Over 100%

We estimate total number of Russian cellular customers at 78.26 mln as of January 31, 2004. Net additions in Russia were 3.9 mln, 55% decrease compared to December 2004 and 44% increase compared to January 2004.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers January 31, 2005 December 31, 2004
Total Russia 78,260,000 73,855,000
  Penetration 53.9% 50.9%
Moscow 17,617,682 16,854,605
  Penetration 103.7% 99.2%
St.Petersburg 5,797,703 5,644,334
  Penetration 91.4% 89.0%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 54,844,615 51,356,061
  Penetration 45.0% 42.1%

Please note that we have revised upward our December 2004 figure due to more detailed information available.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, January 2005
Russian Net Additions,
January 2005

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company January 31, 2005 December 31, 2004
1 MTS 37,220,000 35,395,000
Moscow
7,800,000 7,470,000
Ukraine (UMC)
7,730,000 7,400,000
Belarus
1,270,000 1,215,000
Uzbekistan
320,000 310,000
2 Vimpelcom 28,245,000 26,550,000
Moscow
7,775,000 7,475,000
Kazakhstan
995,000 859,000
3 MegaFon 14,153,090 13,647,807
Moscow
1,941,776 1,817,314
Tajikistan
48,624 47,891
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,167,800 2,058,100
5 SMARTS Group 1,905,100 1,815,000
6 Sibirtelecom 1,029,742 1,001,900
7 N.Novgorod Cellular 725,000 656,441
8 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 440,000 405,467
9 New Telephone Company 280,810 262,205
10 Skylink 196,000 190,200

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

MTS keeps the leading position in Moscow with Vimpelcom running very closely behind. MegaFon's market share remained stable at 11%.

Moscow Market Breakdown
January 31, 2005

Net Additions in Moscow,
January 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

In January 2004 Vimpelcom attracted the largest number of customers in St.Petersburg and in the regions outside the capitals.

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
January 31, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
January 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional Market Breakdown
January 31, 2005
Regional Net Additions
January 2005