Market News
50 mln Cellular Subscribers? Not yet...
Subscriber additions totaled 2.6 mln in June bringing the number of cellular users to 49.5 mln. The country's penetration stands at 34% - twice as high compared to June 2003.
Penetration in Moscow increased to 79% mainly thanks to aggressive sales by MTS that enlisted about 270,000 new subscribers. MegaFon signed up 23,000 customers in Moscow while Vimpelcom for the first time in its history recorded negative (!) subscriber additions in Moscow region due to the numbering capacity constraints well predicted by the company's management.
MTS also posted impressive growth in St.Petersburg getting the largest stake of net adds while Vimpelcom signed the largest number of customers in the regions outside Moscow and St.Pete.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | June 30, 2004 | May 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 49,470,000 | 46,890,000 |
| Penetration | 34.1% | 32.3% |
| Moscow | 13,397,720 | 13,138,560 |
| Penetration | 78.9% | 77.4% |
| St.Petersburg | 4,425,304 | 4,243,854 |
| Penetration | 69.8% | 66.9% |
Russian Cellular | Russian Net Additions, |
In June Vimpelcom entered Far Eastern market, the only Russian macro-region where it had no operations, after closing the long-anticipated acquisition of Dal Telecom International. We included DTI's subscribers (322,000 as of June 30, 2004) in Vimpelcom's numbers presented below. DTI acqusition combined with greenfield rollout made Vimpelcom the leader in terms of regional expansion - it has networks in 66 regions as of 7 June 2004 (MTS has 65 and MegaFon has 63).
The position of DTI in our Top 10 is now taken by Skylink - a new holding company with ambitious plans to build pan-Russian CDMA-2000 network in 450 MHz band. So far we have included Moscow (MCC) and St.Petersburg (Delta Telecom) NMT and CDMA operations in Skylink results but plan to expand the list as the holding consolidates other companies under Skylink umbrella. At the moment only MCC and Delta operate under Skylink brand; Uralwestcom (Ekaterinburg) and SONET (Moscow) are to be merged into Skylink shortly.
MTS signed an agreement with Dalsvyaz (PSTN incumbent operator) to purchase 50% of Primtelefon, GSM license holder for the Far East area where MTS already owns 50% stake. With this move MTS decreased its Russian unconsolidated subscribers from 200,000 to only 11,000. Remaining unconsolidated companies are Volgograd Mobile and Astrakhan Mobile. MTS holds 50% in both operators.
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | June 30, 2004 | May 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 23,534,000 | 22,180,400 |
Moscow | 6,120,000 | 5,850,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 4,634,000 | 4,360,000 | |
Belarus | 744,700 | 688,800 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 16,300,000 | 15,053,000 |
Moscow | 6,183,000 | 6,185,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 9,046,320 | 8,592,155 |
Moscow | 1,035,405 | 1,012,560 | |
Tajikistan | 24,180 | 23,100 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,492,600 | 1,457,600 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,410,000 | 1,346,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 677,800 | 662,800 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 451,834 | 445,636 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 294,231 | 285,052 |
| 9 | Skylink | 183,550 | 180,700 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 160,886 | 160,915 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
Moscow Market Breakdown | Net Additions in Moscow, |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
St. Petersburg Market Breakdown | Net Additions in St.Petersburg |
May Heats Up Summer Sales
One year ago (in May 2003) there was a 1.27 mln subscriber increase with penetration in Russia of 16.2%.
MTS was by far number one in the subscriber additions race in Moscow, while MegaFon managed to gain the net sales leadership in St.Petersburg. Vimpelcom was best seller in regions. As of May 31, 2004 cellular penetration in Moscow was at 77.4%, St.Petersburg - 66.9% and the rest of Russia - 24.2%.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | May 31, 2004 | Apr 30, 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 46,890,000 | 44,420,000 |
| Penetration | 32.3% | 30.6% |
| Moscow | 13,138,560 | 12,813,564 |
| Penetration | 77.4% | 75.4% |
| St.Petersburg | 4,243,854 | 4,066,771 |
| Penetration | 66.9% | 64.1% |
Russian Cellular | Russian Net Additions, |
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | May 31, 2004 | April 30, 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 22,180,400 | 21,000,514 |
Moscow | 5,850,000 | 5,605,849 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 4,360,000 | 4,103,798 | |
Belarus | 688,800 | 636,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 15,053,000 | 14,125,000 |
Moscow | 6,220,000 | 6,150,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 8,592,155 | 8,128,165 |
Moscow | 1,012,560 | 1,002,315 | |
Tajikistan | 25,800 | 22,297 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,457,600 | 1,395,389 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,346,000 | 1,317,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 662,800 | 604,700 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 445,636 | 437,798 |
| 8 | Dal Telecom International | 295,713 | 276,448 |
| 9 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 285,052 | 276,189 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 160,915 | 160,714 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
Moscow Market Breakdown | Net Additions in Moscow, |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
St. Petersburg Market Breakdown | Net Additions in St.Petersburg |
Number of Cellular Users Up 5% in April
MTS outperformed competitors in Moscow area while Vimpelcom demonstrated the best performance in regional sales. MegaFon's final steps to 'clean' the subscriber base by introducing stricter churn policies in its subsidiaries across Russia resulted in rather weak performance in April, though the company's additions in Moscow were stable with subscriber base exceeding 1 mln in the capital as of April 30.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Apr 30, 2004 | Mar 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 44,420,000 | 42,260,000 |
| Penetration | 30.6% | 29.1% |
| Moscow | 12,813,564 | 12,424,223 |
| Penetration | 75.4% | 73.1% |
| St.Petersburg | 4,066,771 | 3,931,481 |
| Penetration | 64.1% | 62.0% |
Russian Cellular | Russian Net Additions, |
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | April 30, 2004 | March 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 21,000,514 | 19,950,000 |
Moscow | 5,605,849 | 5,390,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 4,103,798 | 3,849,000 | |
Belarus | 636,000 | 593,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 14,125,000 | 13,348,000 |
Moscow | 6,150,000 | 6,034,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 8,128,165 | 7,741,730 |
Moscow | 1,002,315 | 942,377 | |
Tajikistan | 16,500 | 16,000 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,395,389 | 1,338,811 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,317,000 | 1,265,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 604,700 | 599,800 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 437,798 | 430,981 |
| 8 | Dal Telecom International | 276,448 | 258,411 |
| 9 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 276,189 | 265,137 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 160,714 | 153,895 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
MTS leapfroged over Vimpelcom in April winning 55% of all net additions. Vimpelcom still remains the leader with 6.15 mln subscribers leading by 0.5 mln users compared to its main rival, MTS. MegaFon finally reached 1 mln milestone in Moscow earning visible 18% of new users.
Moscow Market Breakdown | Net Additions in Moscow, |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
St. Petersburg Market Breakdown | Net Additions in St.Petersburg |
More Than 6 Million Cellular Users Joined Cellular Networks in 1Q 2004
We berlieve there will be more than 60 mln cellular subscribers in the country by year-end 2004.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Mar 31, 2004 | Feb 29, 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 42,260,000 | 39,880,000 |
| Penetration | 29.1% | 27.5% |
| Moscow | 12,424,223 | 12,052,148 |
| Penetration | 73.1% | 71.0% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,931,481 | 3,762,237 |
| Penetration | 62.0% | 59.3% |
Russian Cellular | Russian Net Additions, |
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | March 31, 2004 | February 29, 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 19,950,000 | 18,945,000 |
Moscow | 5,390,000 | 5,200,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 3,849,000 | 3,652,415 | |
Belarus | 593,000 | 549,348 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 13,348,000 | 12,549,000 |
Moscow | 6,034,000 | 5,909,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 7,741,730 | 7,163,222 |
Moscow | 942,377 | 888,148 | |
Tajikistan | 16,000 | 15,294 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,338,811 | 1,201,800 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,265,000 | 1,195,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 599,800 | 574,700 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 430,981 | 415,383 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 265,137 | 245,944 |
| 9 | Dal Telecom International | 258,411 | 236,122 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 153,895 | 167,728 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
Moscow Market Breakdown | Net Additions in Moscow, |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
St. Petersburg Market Breakdown | Net Additions in St.Petersburg |
Cellular Subs Almost Doubled During Last 12 Months
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Feb 29, 2004 | Jan 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 39,880,000 | 37,960,000 |
| Penetration | 27.5% | 26.1% |
| Moscow | 12,052,148 | 11,740,502 |
| Penetration | 71.0% | 69.1% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,762,237 | 3,656,389 |
| Penetration | 59.3% | 57.7% |
Russian Cellular | Russian Net Additions, |
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | February 29, 2004 | January 31, 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 18,945,000 | 18,070,000 |
Moscow | 5,200,000 | 5,061,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 3,652,415 | 3,490,000 | |
Belarus | 549,348 | 505,400 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 12,549,000 | 11,935,000 |
Moscow | 5,909,000 | 5,757,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 7,163,222 | 6,737,771 |
Moscow | 888,148 | 867,646 | |
Tajikistan | 15,294 | 15,000 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,201,800 | 1,251,100 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,195,000 | 1,172,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 574,700 | 536,000 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 415,383 | 396,870 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 245,944 | 237,475 |
| 9 | Dal Telecom International | 236,122 | 220,093 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 167,728 | 159,492 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
In February Vimpelcom won back its leading position in monthly net additions from MTS.
Moscow Market Breakdown | Net Additions in Moscow, |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
MegaFon dominated the market in February with 43% of all new users attracted to the network. The company maintains its market share of 50% while MTS and Vimpelcom have 33% and 10% respectively. Penetration of mobile services in St.Pete is about to reach 60%.
St. Petersburg Market Breakdown | Net Additions in St.Petersburg |
Russian Cellular Market Added 1.73 mln in January 2004
MTS remains the market leader with more than 18 mln subscribers werved by the company's networks across Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Vimpelcom is about to step over 12 mln threshold in February. The company added 540 thousand of new subscribers in January.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Jan 31, 2004 | Dec 31, 2003 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 37,960,000 | 36,230,000 |
| Penetration | 26.1% | 25.0% |
| Moscow | 11,740,502 | 11,487,308 |
| Penetration | 69.1% | 67.6% |
| St.Petersburg | 3,656,389 | 3,526,336 |
| Penetration | 57.7% | 55.6% |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, Jan 2004 | Russian Net Additions, January 2004 |
MTS have 14.07 mln users in Russia and almost 4 mln of subscribers abroad. Vimpelcom and MegaFon follow MTS with 11.9 mln and 6.7 mln users respectively. Uralsvyazinform moved up in the list of top Russian operators outperforming SMARTS association.
Top 10 Mobile Operators
| # | Company | January 31, 2004 | December 31, 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTS | 18,070,000 | 17,291,000 |
Moscow | 5,061,000 | 4,940,000 | |
Ukraine (UMC) | 3,490,000 | 3,349,000 | |
Belarus | 505,400 | 465,000 | |
| 2 | Vimpelcom | 11,935,000 | 11,395,000 |
Moscow | 5,757,000 | 5,651,000 | |
| 3 | MegaFon | 6,737,771 | 6,353,335 |
Moscow | 867,646 | 850,308 | |
Tajikistan | 15,000 | 13,000 | |
| 4 | Uralsvyazinform | 1,201,800 | 1,143,100 |
| 5 | SMARTS Group | 1,172,000 | 1,150,000 |
| 6 | Sibirtelecom | 536,000 | 507,000 |
| 7 | N.Novgorod Cellular | 396,870 | 368,321 |
| 8 | Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 237,475 | 230,112 |
| 9 | Dal Telecom International | 220,093 | 205,199 |
| 10 | New Telephone Company | 159,492 | 150,920 |
Moscow and St.Petersburg
Moscow License Area
In January MTS attracted more users than Vimpelcom for the first time in 7 months. Nevertheless, Vimpelcom maintains the lead in Moscow with market share of 49%.
Moscow Market Breakdown January 31, 2004 | Net Additions in Moscow, January 2004 |
St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region
In St.Petersburg MegaFon leads both in net additions and market share. On its home market the company enlisted 44% of all new subs, which is more than combined additions of its main rivals, MTS and Vimpelcom. Please note that additions in Delta Telecom IMT-MC-450 network were not meaningful in January.St. Petersburg Market Breakdown January 31, 2004 | Net Additions in St.Petersburg January 2004 |