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09
Jan

Russian Cellular Market Update 2003 Released

January 9, 2004

AC&M releases a report on Russian cellular operators' performance in 2003. It includes a general overview of the Russian market and provides a brief outlook on regional markets including operations of Russian mobile communications companies in Ukraine and Belarus

You may download AC&M Russian Cellular Market Update, 2003 by clicking on a following link:
Adobe PDF file (~200 Kb).

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08
Jan

Number of Russian Cellular Users Doubled in 2003

Russia has more than 36 mln cellular users by the end of 2003 which is a 100% growth Y-o-Y. Mobile services penetration in Moscow and St.Pete is on par with many Eastern European countries (67.6% and 55.6% respectively). Total penetration in the country is over 25%.

You may find more from our latest Russian Cellular Market Update, 2003. It includes subscriber growth numbers for the whole year 2003 and detailed figures on Moscow, St.Petersburg and regional markets. The report also covers Russian cellular operators' activities in Ukraine and Belarus.

Top 10 Mobile Operators

# Company December 31, 2003 November 30, 2003
1 MTS 17,291,000 15,783,000
Moscow
4,940,000 4,709,052
Ukraine (UMC)
3,349,000 2,810,000
Belarus
465,000 405,000
2 Vimpelcom 11,395,000 10,498,000
Moscow
5,651,000 5,420,000
3 MegaFon 6,353,335 5,817,225
Moscow
850,308 803,554
Tajikistan
13,000 10,000
4 SMARTS Group 1,150,000 1,080,000
5 Uralsvyazinform 1,143,100 1,066,400
6 Sibirtelecom 507,000 439,900
7 N.Novgorod Cellular 368,321 334,444
8 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications 230,112 172,774
9 Dal Telecom International 205,199 175,632
10 New Telephone Company 150,920 136,534

Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, 2003

Russian Net Additions, December 2003

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers Dec. 31, 2003 Nov. 30, 2003
Russia 36,230,000 33,520,000
  Penetration 25.0% 23.1%
Moscow 11,487,308 10,987,606
  Penetration 67.6% 64.7%
St.Petersburg 3,526,336 3,338,643
  Penetration 55.6% 52.7%
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03
Dec

Growth Continues in November 2003

Russian cellular market demonstrates steady growth with 1.6 mln new subscribers added to the counter in November 2003. MTS remains market leader in Russia and CIS while Vimpelcom continues to lead in Moscow region.

Top 10 Cellular Operators

# Company November 30, 2003 October 31, 2003
1 MTS 15,763,000 15,050,000
Moscow
4,709,052 4,605,000
Ukraine (UMC)
2,800,000 2,700,000
Belarus
405,000 360,000
2 Vimpelcom 10,498,000 9,915,000
Moscow
5,420,000 5,270,000
3 MegaFon 5,817,225 5,600,296
Moscow
803,554 767,502
Tajikistan
10,000 9,500
4 SMARTS Group 1,080,000 1,027,000
5 Uralsvyazinform 1,066,400 1,007,500
6 Sibirtelecom 439,900 424,300
7 N.Novgorod Cellular 334,444 317,029
8 Dal Telecom International 175,632 165,382
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications 172,774 169,669
10 New Telephone Company 136,534 130,180

Russian Cellular Market Breakdown

Russian Net Additions, November 2003

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers Nov. 30, 2003 Oct. 31, 2003
Russia 33,520,000 31,920,000
  Penetration 23.1% 22.0%
Moscow 10,987,606 10,697,502
  Penetration 64.7% 63.0%
St.Petersburg 3,338,643 3,233,948
  Penetration 52.7% 51.0%

Recent events:

  • On November 1st MCC launched IMT-MC-450 network in Moscow under SkyLink brand.
  • MTS and Vimpelcom announced 9M 2003 financial results.

Moscow Market

First month of MCC's IMT-MC-450 network operations did not changed much in net additions breakdown. GSM operators continue to dominate the market in the capital of Russia.

Moscow market demonstrates signs of mid-term saturation. We expect that in 6-9 month the pace of growth in Moscow region will noticeably slow down.

Moscow Market Breakdown

Moscow Net Additions, Nov 2003

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05
Nov

Two New Millionaires on the Market

Despite some traditional Pre-Christmas slowdown in sales, more than 1.6 mln of new subscribers joined mobile networks in October, 2003. Penetration of mobile services in Russia is 22%.

Uralsvyazinform and SMARTS reached 1 mln subscribers while MTS has stepped over 15 mln threshold. Ukrainian an Belorussian operations added almost 200 thsd of new subs for the company. Top five operators significantly outperform other players.

Top 10 Cellular Operators

# Company October 31, 2003 September 30, 2003
1 MTS 15,050,000 14,270,000
Moscow
4,605,000 4,490,000
Ukraine (UMC)
2,700,000 2,550,282
Belarus
360,000 310,000
2 Vimpelcom 9,915,000 9,250,000
Moscow
5,270,000 5,065,000
3 MegaFon 5,600,296 5,342,625
Moscow
767,502 755,910
Tajikistan
9,500 9,000
4 SMARTS Group 1,027,000 970,000
5 Uralsvyazinform 1,007,500 947,600
6 Sibirtelecom 424,300 405,000
7 N.Novgorod Cellular 317,029 295,738
8 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications 169,669 165,234
9 Dal Telecom International 165,382 150,711
10 New Telephone Company 130,180 116,7881

Russian Cellular Market Breakdown

Russian Net Additions, October 2003

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers Oct. 31, 2003 Sep. 30, 2003
Russia 31,920,000 30,280,000
  Penetration 22.0% 20.9%
Moscow 10,697,502 10,326,000
  Penetration 63.0% 60.8%
St.Petersburg 3,233,948 3,123,000
  Penetration 51.0% 49.2%

Recent events:

  • Penetration in St.Petersburg is over 50%.
  • On November 1st MCC launched its IMT-MC-450 network in Moscow.
  • On November 4th Vimpelcom has announced that the company has more than 10 mln subscribers

Moscow Market

Moscow Market Breakdown

Moscow Net Additions, Oct 2003

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06
Oct

Regional Mobile Growth In Full Swing

Russian mobile market grew by record 1.8 mln users in September 2003 fueled mainly by strong growth in regions. Moscow and St.Petersburg together added about 600 thousand of new subscribers while regional networks attracted the remainder bringing penetration of mobile services to 20.9%.

If the trend persists, there will be over 35 mln of cellular users in Russia by year-end 2003.

Top 10 Cellular Operators

Company September 30, 2003 August 31, 2003
Total Moscow Total Moscow
MTS* 14,270,000 4,490,000 13,280,000 4,390,000
Vimpelcom 9,250,000 5,025,000 8,530,000 4,835,000
MegaFon** 5,342,625 755,910 4,942,745 593,643
SMARTS Group 970,000   915,000  
Uralsvyazinform 947,600   869,800  
Siberia Telecom 405,000   352,744  
N.Novgorod Cellular 295,738   279,087  
Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications 165,234   161,490  
Dal Telecom International 150,711   134,453  
New Telephone Company 116,7881   107,387  

* including UMC of Ukraine (2.55 mln), MTS Belarus subscribers (310,000) and recently acquired Tomsk Cellular Communications (195,000)
** including 9,000 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)

Russian Cellular Market Breakdown

Penetration in Moscow and St.Petersburg is significantly higher compared to the rest of the country so it comes as no surprise that the cellular growth finally spilled over to regions.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers Sep. 30, 2003 Aug. 31, 2003
Russia 30,280,000 28,480,000
  Penetration 20.9% 19.6%
Moscow 10,326,000 9,870,000
  Penetration 60.8% 58.1%
St.Petersburg 3,123,000 2,971,000
  Penetration 49.2% 47.2%

Vimpelcom has won the September race for new users in St.Pete for the first time since launching its network in the region. The company earned 34% of net additions followed by MTS (29%) and MegaFon (25%).

Moscow Market

Vimpelcom's Moscow client base grew over 5 mln with 190 thsd of new users added in September. The company leads in Moscow followed by MTS (4.49 mln) and MegaFon (0.756 mln).

MegaFon managed to attract a significant portion of net additions for the second month in a row. The company outperformed MTS thanks to its popular O'Lite tariff plan. MTS explains the slowdown in net additions by a high churn rate on its contract tariff plans resulted from swithching of its contract users to the company's pre-paid tariffs started two month ago.

Moscow Net Additions, August 2003

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03
Sep

Vimpelcom Leads in Moscow, MTS Expands in Russia

Russian mobile networks enlisted 1.6 mln new subscribers in August, which represents a slight decline from July numbers (1.75 mln) reflecting traditionally weak sales in the last summer month.

Top 10 Cellular Operators

Company August 31, 2003 July 31, 2003
Total Moscow Total Moscow
MTS* 13,280,000 4,390,000 12,270,000 4,290,000
Vimpelcom 8,530,000 4,835,000 7,960,000 4,650,000
MegaFon** 4,942,745 593,643 4,653,450 513,257
SMARTS Group 915,000   860,000  
Uralsvyazinform 869,800   789,329  
Siberia Telecom 352,744   324,443  
N.Novgorod Cellular 279,087   268,142  
Tomsk Cellular Communications 183,904   169,926  
Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications 161,490   155,600  
Tatincom 118,606   120,239  

* including UMC of Ukraine (2.4 mln) and MTS Belarus subscribers (250,000)
** including 8,500 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)

MTS finally completed SibChallenge deal (135,000 subscribers) and also acquired Primtelefon (91,000 subs) - a strategic asset for MTS providing access to Far Eastern territories. We have included both companies into MTS subscriber base displayed in the table above. With these transactions closed, only a few attractive independent cellular operators left in the country.

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers Aug. 31, 2003 July 1, 2003
Russia 28,480,000 26,880,000
  Penetration 19.6% 18.5%
Moscow 9,870,000 9,505,000
  Penetration 58.1% 55.9%
St.Petersburg 2,971,000 2,841,000
  Penetration 47.2% 45.1%

Russian Cellular Market Breakdown

Moscow Market

Megafon demonstrated strong growth in subscriptions for the second month in a row thanks to the new (and heavily promoted) O'Lite pre-paid tariff plan. Vimpelcom was again a winner in Moscow while MTS slowed down the pace. Nevertheless, we believe that MTS will be able to restore its share in net additions soon.

Moscow Net Additions, August 2003