Market News
Vimpelcom Leads in Moscow, MTS Expands in Russia
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | August 31, 2003 | July 31, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 13,280,000 | 4,390,000 | 12,270,000 | 4,290,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 8,530,000 | 4,835,000 | 7,960,000 | 4,650,000 |
| MegaFon** | 4,942,745 | 593,643 | 4,653,450 | 513,257 |
| SMARTS Group | 915,000 | 860,000 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 869,800 | 789,329 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 352,744 | 324,443 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 279,087 | 268,142 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 183,904 | 169,926 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 161,490 | 155,600 | ||
| Tatincom | 118,606 | 120,239 | ||
* including UMC of Ukraine (2.4 mln) and MTS Belarus subscribers (250,000)
** including 8,500 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
MTS finally completed SibChallenge deal (135,000 subscribers) and also acquired Primtelefon (91,000 subs) - a strategic asset for MTS providing access to Far Eastern territories. We have included both companies into MTS subscriber base displayed in the table above. With these transactions closed, only a few attractive independent cellular operators left in the country.
Russian Mobile Subscribers
| Mobile Subscribers | Aug. 31, 2003 | July 1, 2003 |
| Russia | 28,480,000 | 26,880,000 |
| Penetration | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| Moscow | 9,870,000 | 9,505,000 |
| Penetration | 58.1% | 55.9% |
| St.Petersburg | 2,971,000 | 2,841,000 |
| Penetration | 47.2% | 45.1% |
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown
Moscow Market
Megafon demonstrated strong growth in subscriptions for the second month in a row thanks to the new (and heavily promoted) O'Lite pre-paid tariff plan. Vimpelcom was again a winner in Moscow while MTS slowed down the pace. Nevertheless, we believe that MTS will be able to restore its share in net additions soon.
Moscow Net Additions, August 2003
Cellular Subscriptions Soar in July
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | July 31, 2003 | June 30, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 12,270,000 | 4,290,000 | 11,490,000 | 4,135,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 7,960,000 | 4,650,000 | 7,455,000 | 4,435,000 |
| MegaFon** | 4,653,450 | 513,257 | 4,255,000 | 440,300 |
| SMARTS Group | 860,000 | 807,700 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 789,329 | 739,060 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 324,443 | 298,331 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 268,142 | 248,025 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 169,926 | 158,400 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 155,600 | 143,500 | ||
| SibChallenge | 135,000 | 128,000 | ||
*including UMC of Ukraine (2.2 mln) and Belarus subscribers (210,000)
** including 8,100 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
MTS, the prominent market leader, is approaching 10 mln milestone in Russia. The company also controls Ukrainian Mobile Communications with 2.2 mln users and has a JV in Belarus that enlisted 210,000 users by the end of July.
On August 6 Vimpelcom announced that it has reached 8 mln subscribers. Recently launched network in St.Petersburg attracted 23% of new subscribers in July which is a good result for the new market entrant. Vimpelcom now has more than 80,000 subs in St.Pete and the region.
MegaFon, third-largest Russian operator, also did a good progress in July attracting 23% of all new users in the country. It is likely that the company may break through 5 mln in August.
Please note that we did not consolidate SibChallenge subscriber base into MTS numbers despite the recently announced acquisition. We plan to start the consolidation as soon as the deal is officially closed.
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, July 2003 | Shares in Net Additions, July 2003 |
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Moscow Market
In Moscow the miost significant news of the months is MegaFon's leap from 8% to 16% in net additions. Vimpelcom retains its leading position with MTS following the race.
MCC, the market outsider, is about to launch its IMT-MC network in 450 MHz under SkyLink brand.
Moscow Market Breakdown, July 2003 | Moscow Net Additions in July 2003 |
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Regions Accelerate
Total number of cellular subscribers reached 25 mln milestone while Moscow market grew over 9 mln subscribers. We expect that by the year-end 2003 Russian cellular market will expand to 32 mln users.
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | June 30, 2003 | May 31, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 11,490,000 | 4,135,000 | 10,815,000 | 3,945,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 7,455,000 | 4,435,000 | 6,951,000 | 4,235,000 |
| MegaFon** | 4,255,000 | 440,300 | 4,009,393 | 407,936 |
| SMARTS Group | 807,700 | 758,400 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 726,000 | 659,500 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 298,331 | 234,619 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 248,025 | 233,100 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 158,400 | 145,799 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 143,500 | 129,800 | ||
| SibChallenge | 128,000 | 120,000 | ||
*including UMC of Ukraine (2 mln) and Belarus subscribers (170,000)
** including 7,200 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
St.Petersburg Market, June 2003 | Net Additions in Regions, Including St.Petersburg |
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Vimpelcom has more than 50,000 users in St.Petersburg - the number that the company reached in 2.5 months of operations in the city. The company also enlisted its subscriber #7,000,000 in June.
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, June 2003
NOTE: The chart above includes only Russian subscribers, all CIS networks are excluded from the calculation.
Moscow Market
Total market size in the Moscow license area has reached 9 mln users bringing cellular penetration in the region to 53%. According to the preliminary results of 2002 nation-wide census, population of Moscow and region is 17 mln. Since the final results of the census are not available, we shall use the preliminary data from now on.
In June Vimpelcom became a leader in Moscow net additions regaining the position lost to MTS in December 2002.
Moscow Net Additions in June 2003
Summer Season of Mobile Sales Opens in May
May brought additional 1.27 mln of subscribers to Russian mobile networks. The opening of 'summer mobile sales' season in major cities and growth of regional networks resulted in above average net additions.
Starting the present issue we include into our ranking consolidated numbers of cellular subscribers of Siberia Telecom, Svyazinvest subsidiary that controls Eniseytelecom (Krasnoyarsk), Baykalwestcom (Irkutsk), STeK GSM (Kemerovo), Ulan-Ude Cellular Communications and several smaller networks. We believe that the company may consolidate its cellular assets into a single operator pretty soon.
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | May 31, 2003 | April 30, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 10,815,000 | 3,945,000 | 10,215,000 | 3,750,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 6,920,000 | 4,220,000 | 6,580,000 | 4,090,000 |
| MegaFon** | 4,004,199 | 409,000 | 3,820,199 | 403,170 |
| SMARTS Group | 758,400 | 703,900 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 659,500 | 601,800 | ||
| Siberia Telecom | 234,619 | 230,000 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 233,100 | 212,700 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 145,799 | 135,278 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications | 129,800 | 126,700 | ||
| Tatincom | 126,000 | 124,868 | ||
*including UMC of Ukraine (1.91 mln) and Belarus subscribers (140,000)
** including 6,500 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
MegaFon enlisted its 4,000,000 subscriber in May while MTS demonstrated impressive growth in regional sales with more than 400,000 new subscribers joining the company in areas outside Moscow.
Vimpelcom announced results of its first month of operations in St.Petersburg. The company attracted more than 25,000 subscribers which is in line with its management projections. Vimpelcom's total subscriber base almost reached 7 mln in May. We expect that the company will enlist its 7,000,000th user in the first week of June.
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, May 2003
The chart above includes only Russian subscribers, all CIS networks are excluded from the calculation.
Moscow Market
Traditionally, many Muscovites start commuting to their summer houses located in areas around Moscow in May, which results in growing share of pre-paid subscriptions of Moscow-based providers. Since cellular became an affordable service for the mass market, it remains a killer application for those commuting to dachas which usually do not have fixed-line phones installed.
This year the growth in subscriptions started early, already in May, with seasonal promotions and active advertising campaigns by all operators. MTS and Vimpelcom were more active and demonstrated better results than MegaFon that lacks a competetive coverage outside Moscow.
Moscow Net Additions in May 2003
MTS Steps Over 10 mln Threshold
MTS celebrated its 10,000,000 subscriber during Svyaz-Expocomm'03 annual communications exhibition held in Moscow. This milestone (achieved mainly thanks to recent acquisitions and aggressive regional expansion) positions MTS on par with leading European operators.
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | April 30, 2003 | March 31, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 10,215,000 | 3,750,000 | 9,510,000 | 3,545,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 6,580,000 | 4,090,000 | 6,170,000 | 3,940,000 |
| MegaFon** | 3,820,199 | 403,170 | 3,635,940 | 387,706 |
| SMARTS Group | 703,900 | 671,850 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 601,800 | 551,400 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 212,700 | 201,630 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 135,278 | 123,630 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular | 126,700 | 114,700 | ||
| Tatincom | 124,868 | 122,864 | ||
| SibChallenge | 113,875 | 102,700 | ||
*including UMC of Ukraine (1.86 mln) and Belarus subscribers (105,000)
** including 6,238 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, April 2003
The chart above includes only Russian subscribers, all CIS networks were excluded from calculations.
Moscow Market
Vimpelcom retains leading positions on Moscow market with approximately 50% market share.
Although MegaFon and Vimpelcom managed to win back ~6% of net additions from MTS in April, MTS' share in new subscriptions remains dominant as the company slowly catches up with Vimpelcom in the Moscow License Area.
MegaFon's Moscow sales are recovering from March problems but the company attracted twice less new subs compared to its January figures.
Moscow Net Additions in April 2003
Steady Growth Continues
Top 10 Cellular Operators
| Company | March 31, 2003 | February 28, 2003 | ||
| Total | Moscow | Total | Moscow | |
| MTS* | 9,510,000 | 3,545,000 | 7,320,000 | 3,385,000 |
| Vimpelcom | 6,170,000 | 3,940,000 | 5,847,000 | 3,846,000 |
| Megafon** | 3,635,940 | 387,706 | 3,445,000 | 382,278 |
| SMARTS Group | 660,000 | 619,940 | ||
| Uralsvyazinform | 551,400 | 516,600 | ||
| Taif-Telcom*** | 332,246 | 313,648 | ||
| N.Novgorod Cellular | 201,630 | 191,000 | ||
| Tomsk Cellular Communications | 123,630 | 114,311 | ||
| Tatincom | 122,864 | 120,584 | ||
| Ekaterinburg Cellular | 114,700 | 104,300 | ||
*including UMC of Ukraine (1.82 mln) and Belarus subscribers (65,000)
** including 5,538 in TT-Mobile (Tajikistan)
*** 240,000 active subscribers; Taif-Telcom will be consolidated into MTS starting from end-April 2003 following the recent acquisition.
Russian Cellular Market Breakdown, March 2003
The chart above includes only Russian subscribers, all CIS networks were excluded from calculations.
Moscow Market
The month was successfull for MTS in Moscow while Megafon delivered disappointing results. Vimpelcom also loses its positions in the capital. If the trend persists, MTS may catch up with Vimpelcom in 2-3 months on the Moscow market.
Megafon's weak performance in March may be explained by the lack of direct Moscow numbering capacity that the company rents from other operators. The shortage was terminated in the end in the month. In addition, Megafon launched a new marketing campaign in order to stimulate sales.
Moscow Net Additions in March 2003
More Articles...
- 2002 Gross Additions of Moscow Operators is Over 5.2 mln
- Total Number of Cellular Users in Russia Exceeds 20 mln
- Alternative Operators Earned More Than 50% of the Industry Revenue
- More Than 1 mn of New Users Enlisted by Mobile Operators in January
- Russian Internet Data, Jan 2003
- Cellular Market Update 2002