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15
Mar

February 2005 Cellular Statistics

We estimate that the total number of valid subscriptions in Russia passed 80 mln in February to have reached 81.7m. Therefore, SIM-card penetration in the country reached 56% (27.5% in February 2004).

If Russia sustain the current growth pattern we may very well see 119 million subscribers in Russia at the year-end 2005 (>80% penetration).

Russian Mobile Subscribers

Mobile Subscribers February 28, 2005 January 31, 2005
Total Russia 81,700,000 78,260,000
  Penetration 56.3% 53.9%
Moscow 18,129,914 17,617,682
  Penetration 106.7% 103.7%
St.Petersburg 5,911,085 5,797,703
  Penetration 93.2% 91.4%
Subscribers outside Moscow and St.Pete 57,659,001 54,844,615
  Penetration 47.3% 45.0%

Please note that our penetration figures are based on official data from 2002 population census (17 mln for Moscow and 6.3 mln for St.Pete). Reportedly, the population in Moscow License Area reaches as high as 23-25 mln while St.Pete License Area population figure is above 7 mln.

Russian Cellular
Market Breakdown, February 2005
Russian Net Additions,
February 2005
Top 10 Mobile Operators
# Company February 28, 2005 January 31, 2005
1 MTS 38,480,000 37,220,000
Moscow
7,955,000 7,800,000
Ukraine (UMC)
7,895,000 7,730,000
Belarus
1,328,000 1,270,000
Uzbekistan
337,000 320,000
2 Vimpelcom 29,450,000 28,245,000
Moscow
7,945,000 7,775,000
Kazakhstan
1,055,000 995,000
3 MegaFon 14,867,250 14,153,090
Moscow
2,127,996 1,941,776
Tajikistan
49,212 48,624
4 Uralsvyazinform 2,283,100 2,167,800
5 SMARTS Group 2,010,000 1,905,100
6 Tele2 1,410,000 1,340,000
7 Sibirtelecom 1,116,000 1,029,742
8 N.Novgorod Cellular 775,322 725,000
9 Ekaterinburg Cellular Communications - MOTIV 486,520 440,000
10 New Telephone Company 311,570 280,810

Starting from this issue we include our estimates for Tele2 customers in Russia. With a very limited operational data available on Tele2 Russian operations we consider it is still important to share our vision with you as, according to our estimates, the company may soon reach 1.5 million subscribers (combined of all its 12 regional networks) and thus should be considered as a serious second-tier regional operator.

Moscow and St.Petersburg

Moscow License Area

Both MTS and Vimpelcom signed 150+ thsd new customers in February, which is typically not the best selling month. MTS leadership in the capital remained unchanged in February, though the difference with Vimpelcom is statistically insignificant. We would like to draw your attention to the performance by MegaFon, which for the first time since Sonic Duo (MegaFon operating entity in the Moscow License Area) came on air in November 2001, achieved more net additions in the capital than its two major competitors! Despite the fact that MegaFon uses stricter churn policy it has been slowly but surely expanding its market share in the MLA.

Moscow Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005

Net Additions in Moscow,
February 2005

St.Petersburg and Leningrad Region

St.Petersburg is quickly approaching 100 mobile accounts per 100 population. Vimpelcom signed more than 50,000 users in St.Petersburg in February - for the second month in a row winning leadership in net additions from MegaFon and MTS.

St. Petersburg Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005
Net Additions in St.Petersburg
February 2005

Regions outside Moscow and St.Pete

Regional sales are leaded by Vimpelcom this month (again), with MTS running closely.

Regional Market Breakdown
February 28, 2005
Regional Net Additions
February 2005